Existing home sales are expected to increase moderately in 2012, reflecting steady employment and population growth. With the first quarter of 2011 one of the strongest first quarters on record, MLS® sales have been moving lower since March of this year. Resales are expected to remain relatively flat until later in 2012. On an annual basis, MLS® sales are forecast to increase six per cent, to 33,000 transactions this year and a further nine per cent in 2012, to 36,000 MLS® sales.
Demand and supply in the resale market are expected to remain
balanced until later in 2012. This will be reflected in the sales to new listings ratio, a barometer of supply and demand conditions.
Under these conditions, prices generally rise at near the rate of
inflation, home buyers have an ample choice of listings and home sellers can expect more price competition. With existing home sales moving lower and new MLS® listings trending flat since
March of this year, most markets in Greater Vancouver have moved to more balanced territory.
As home buyers and sellers adjust to more balanced resale market. Conditions during the remainder of this year and into 2012, there will be less upward pressure on prices for all home types. Single detached house prices moved lower during the third
quarter, reflecting a downtrend in sales and an ample supply of listings.
However, strong growth in single detached resale home prices during the first part of the year in some areas of Greater Vancouver will increase the average MLS® price (for all home
types combined) by 17 per cent in 2011, to $788,000.
For 2012, it is expected that growth in single detached house prices will be more moderate and move more in line with multi-family (town home and apartment) home price growth. The divergence in the pace of growth which began in mid-2010 will continue to gradually narrow. The average resale price is projected to increase two per cent in 2012, to $805,000.